Investment outlook Q3 2024

 

Returns have remained strong for most fully invested investors, with shares at all-time highs and bonds stable.  Investment markets are still much more interested in inflation and jobs numbers than politics, even though we’ve been witnessing seismic political shifts almost daily in the US, France and the UK.  We may see some volatility as we get closer to the US election.

The central narrative is that inflation is slowly returning to target levels in most countries, interest rates will be cut and recessions will mostly be avoided.  Importantly, financial markets are now convinced that US interest rates (currently 5-5.25%) will start to be managed down during quarter 3.  This would normally mean a tailwind to investment returns.  The UK and Europe are already reducing rates.  Australia is somewhat out of step though, at 4.35% its rate is already 1% lower than the US and conditions don’t look right for a rate cut yet.  In fact, a temporary interest rate hike in Australia should not be ruled out if the June quarter inflation number looks strong.  That statistic comes out on 31 July.

Our main investment focus at Grand Plan Wealth is the compounding of wealth for long term investors. Short term returns may be fascinating (at least to the finance types) but they are essentially a lottery. We can be much more confident in long term forecasts, because long term returns are mainly derived from the more predictable earnings that flow out of diversified investment portfolios – profits, dividends, interest payments, rents etc. On this note, Vanguard updated their long term forecasts in quarter 2. The numbers have softened a little, but with all the usual caveats they are still tipping worthwhile returns across traditional market portfolios over 10 and 30 years, even after the impact of inflation. And because interest rates are currently elevated, even conservative ‘bond heavy’ portfolios are expected to do relatively well.

Reach out to us if you’d like more detail.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Get started on your Grand Plan

Everyone needs to sort out their wealth.  So is yours sorted?

If not, take heart.  It may not be that hard to get your Grand Plan together.  And quickly too.  But most people need help because, like the puzzle above, all the pieces need to fit together.

Don’t neglect your Grand Plan, or at some point you or your loved ones could be facing a self-inflicted financial crisis.

Here’s a few tips on bringing your pieces into alignment.

  1. Living well is about budgeting for a full life to a sustainable standard of living from the here and now into old age. It’s about knowing that you’ve struck a comfortable balance between never running out of money and not short-changing yourself or your loved ones.
  2. Your legacy is about considering those left behind when you go. It’s not so much the size of your estate; its also about empowering your loved ones to succeed without you.   Careful estate planning is much more than having a will, although far too many Australians haven’t even managed that step. So if you want your legacy to be respected (and we speak from experience here), remember this: disarray doesn’t pay!
  3. Personal Insurance (life, disability, income protection cover etc) is about surviving financially when really bad things happen.  Insurance needs change over time.  Typically, our insurance needs peak when we have young families and reduce as we approach retirement.  Premiums have never been as expensive as now, so make sure you understand and really need what you’re paying for.
  4. Investment is about how you fund your grand plan. You need to be confident that you’ll earn highly competitive returns over the long term.  And you need to sleep well at night as the markets cycle through boom and bust.
  5. Tax planning and structuring – Super, pensions, annuities, trusts, investment companies – what is the best set up for you?  The attraction of certain structures will change over time and thankfully there are some generous tax concessions that become available as we age. So we should use them!

That may sound like a lot, but at Grand Plan Wealth we take on the heavy lifting.  Your Grand Plan will be completed and implemented with you.  It will be saved securely on our systems.  We’re happy to take the lead on updates when required, or you can have on line access.  This gives you the ability to update things and run “what if” scenarios.

Contact us now to get started.  Or, if you’re already pretty confident with your personal finance numbers, you can use our free software to make a start in your own time.

There’s plenty of upside.  With your Grand Plan in place, you’ll have the confidence to live out your very best life, with no regrets.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor.  Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

UK State Pension Rescue – back payment window closing

We continue to get fantastic results for our UK State Pension Rescue clients, helping them drastically improve their pension expectations for a modest cost.

Our specialist service can assist most Australian residents maximise their UK pension if they lived and worked in the UK for 3 years or more.

One recent client we helped is Mark, who was able to increase his Pension expectation from nothing (not enough years had been contributed to qualify for anything) to an expected 90% of a full UK State Pension, from age 67, for life. The cost of the whole exercise will likely be less than the first year’s pension he’ll receive.

For most, a key element of the process is to present the HMRC with paperwork that maximises the chance that HMRC will offer contribution back-payments at a concessional rate.

For eligible clients, these back-payments can currently be made all the way back to 2006/7. This has been a boon for those looking to increase their pension expectation, as it can allow 16 years (nearly half of the 35 years needed for a full UK State Pension) to be paid up in one fell swoop.

But from 5 April 2025, back-payments will only be permitted for the immediate 6 years prior.

Whilst this deadline is still some way away, it has been taking over 9 months for HMRC to respond to the necessary paperwork seeking permission to contribute from abroad. As we have no control over HMRC response times, for practical purposes the back-payment window may be closing imminently.

So please reach out now if you, or someone you know needs a UK State Pension Rescue.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Investment – how we do it

It’s important that you know our approach to investment. The success of your investments will make a profound difference to how your Grand Plan plays out.

There are three core principles to our investment philosophy:

  1. We have a client first approach. Understanding each client’s Grand Plan, risk tolerance and time horizon is paramount. For example, the investment implications of funding a house renovation will likely be very different to funding a retirement.
  2. We believe in well diversified portfolios across asset classes, geographies and investment styles. The underlying components would likely include company shares, property, bonds, commodities and cash. All investments recommended will be supported by independent research prepared by our investment research partners.
  3. We take a long-term perspective and focus on long term outcomes rather than short term noise. We avoid chasing fads and prefer discipline, patience and consistency. Compounding over time is our most valuable ally.

Over the long term this approach is designed to succeed. We walk the talk by investing our own money into our own “preferred portfolios” across several risk profiles. We carefully benchmark our results and over the full cycle, we expect these portfolios to out-perform category averages, thanks to a disciplined process that taps directly into world class institutions.

The performance and track record of our “preferred portfolios” is available upon request.
Within our preferred portfolios we can break down the various management styles into three distinct allocations, each with its own unique advantage:

  1. Allocation 1: ultra-low-cost public market exposure, for diversified and cost-efficient outcomes, also known as ‘passive investment’ or ‘indexing’. Here we’re seeking to win through participating in long term market growth at the lowest possible cost.
  2. Allocation 2: smart active management by tilting portfolio investments towards where future value lies and away from over- valued investments. Here we’re tapping into leading stock-pickers and investment gurus around the world, each with a record of beating their peers through better returns or lower risk.
  3. Allocation 3: private markets – using specialist managers to access premium investments not available to the public. Here we’re tapping into scarcity value, for example the relationships and network effects enjoyed by certain private equity and private debt managers.

Whilst we back our preferred portfolios with our own money, we fully expect to tailor client portfolios to their preferences and situations. For example, we can help our clients build portfolios that reflect not just their financial objectives, but to actively avoid certain investments or invest directly into social and environmental change.

We are licenced to trade shares, funds, bonds and deposits for clients. We are agnostic between self-managed super, retail super, industry super, direct shares, property and funds. We are truly independent and have no hidden ties or commission arrangements with product manufacturers. We are practical people who will simply recommend what’s in our clients’ best interests, within the context of their Grand Plans. Our recommendations are backed by independent research and our main research partners are Morningstar, Macquarie Group and Vanguard.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Investment outlook Q2 2024

 

Interest rates are the price of money and much of the time the movements in financial markets simply reflect changing expectations of future interest rates.

Central banks manage interest rates to maintain favourable economic environments, which includes keeping a lid on inflation. Policy mistakes are common and the surge in inflation post COVID has been a major headache, prompting massive interest rate hikes. Thankfully the wild inflation numbers of the last couple of years are now behind us.

Over this last quarter, the main unfolding story for investment markets has been the slow progress in finally getting inflation back inside the policy target of 2-3%. Inflation seems to be stuck 1-2% higher than target, meaning that hopes of interest rate cuts keep being pushed back. Which is not good for financial markets.

So, after a very strong start to the year, investment markets lost ground in April as the inflation data disappointed. A typical ‘balanced’ style strategy returned around 5% in the first quarter of 2024 but by early May had retraced a couple of percent.

Goods inflation is well under control. But services inflation has spiked up, pushed along by higher housing rents, a tight labour market and wage settlements.

It’s a delicate game and financial conditions from elevated interest rates are slowing the Australian economy. Consumer spending is already weak and loan delinquencies are on the rise. Nevertheless, predictions are for low but positive economic growth in Australia over the next year. Thankfully the consensus is for no recession in Australia or the US.

Markets are now expecting no rate cuts in Australia or the US until very late in the year, but hanging on to the belief that the next interest rate movement will be down, not up.

Our main investment focus at Grand Plan Wealth is the compounding of wealth for long term investors. Short term returns may be fascinating (at least to the finance types) but they are essentially a lottery. We can be much more confident in long term forecasts, because long term returns are mainly derived from the more predictable earnings that flow out of diversified investment portfolios – profits, dividends, interest payments, rents etc. On this note, Vanguard has updated their long term forecasts. With all the usual caveats they are tipping worthwhile returns across traditional market portfolios over 10 and 30 years, even after the impact of inflation. And because interest rates are currently elevated, even conservative ‘bond heavy’ portfolios are expected to do relatively well.

Reach out to us if you’d like more detail.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Investment Outlook for 2024

Since the lows of October last year, Australian and most international share markets have rallied strongly. More than anything this has been due to increasing confidence that inflation in Australia and around the world is trending down towards Central bank targets of 2-3% without the need for further interest rate rises.

Indeed, the financial markets of Australia and the US are anticipating modest interest rate cuts later in 2024, although Central Banks keep stressing that they won’t hesitate to increase rates if inflation doesn’t continue to fall.

Even if interest rate cuts do come, it does seem highly unlikely that rates will revisit the lows of the COVID era.

The sense of optimism has continued into the new year, although economic growth is generally weak and there are numerous geopolitical risks such as the Palestinian/Israeli war, the Ukraine war and the upcoming US election.

Our research partners are unanimous in highlighting that we are now in a period of “sound money”, in that we finally have positive real interest rates (many bond and deposit interest rates are higher than current inflation). As such, bonds can provide attractive yields and play a genuinely defensive role in the event of an unexpected downturn.

Although company profit growth overall looks soft, Australian shares are generally seen as fairly valued, along with most overseas markets. The US share market looks stretched, partly through heady expectations from technology stocks, including AI.

Most other asset classes are seen as being in the fair value range, with emerging markets and smaller companies showing signs of being under-valued.

For long term investors, our current positioning is to be well diversified and close to full investment allocations, with modest tilts towards bonds, emerging markets and smaller companies.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.