Investment outlook Q3 2026

 

 

Investment markets have carried their momentum into the second half of the year, with most major share markets at or near record levels. Company earnings expectations keep being revised upwards — particularly for the large global businesses seen as the winners from AI — and, for now, profits have been delivering on those upgrades.

 

The difficulty is that a lot of good news is already in the price. On most conventional measures, shares are expensive relative to their own history, and the reward for owning the riskier end of the market has narrowed considerably. The long-term return expectations we work with suggest that, from today’s starting point, a high growth portfolio is likely to deliver only modestly more than a more balanced one — while still exposing an investor to the full force of a market correction. Put simply, investors aren’t being paid much for taking on that extra volatility at present.

 

Overlaying this is a political and trade backdrop that markets are struggling to price. The US administration continues to announce, delay, soften and then reinstate tariff and policy positions, and markets have largely learned to look through it. That may prove sensible. It may also mean the market is under-pricing the chance that one of these positions eventually sticks and does lasting damage to global trade and confidence.

 

As a result, most of our clients are invested a little more defensively than their long-term neutral settings.  The main overweight is fixed interest. With higher interest rates and growth-stock valuations stretched, quality bonds now offer a genuinely competitive, lower-risk source of return. This is the largest active position in the portfolio.

 

We are also modestly overweight international shares, where earnings upgrades have been strongest and the opportunity set is broadest.

 

The main underweights are Australian shares, alternatives and property.  Locally, interest rates staying higher for longer, softening house prices and subdued consumer sentiment continue to weigh on domestic company profits.  Property has been trimmed ahead of further interest rate uncertainty, despite performing well recently, and alternatives are held below neutral while we favour the liquidity and lower cost of the core index holdings. Cash sits at neutral — enough dry powder to act on opportunities without diluting the portfolio’s growth objective.

 

If you would like more detailed insights, please reach out to us.

 

 

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should seek personal advice from Grand Plan Wealth to consider if the strategies and products are right for you. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Investment – how we do it

It’s important that you know our approach to investment. The success of your investments will make a profound difference to how your Grand Plan plays out.

There are three core principles to our investment philosophy:

  1. We have a client first approach. Understanding each client’s Grand Plan, risk tolerance and time horizon is paramount. For example, the investment implications of funding a house renovation will likely be very different to funding a retirement.
  2. We believe in well diversified portfolios across asset classes, geographies and investment styles. The underlying components would likely include company shares, property, bonds, commodities and cash. All investments recommended will be supported by independent research prepared by our investment research partners.
  3. We take a long-term perspective and focus on long term outcomes rather than short term noise. We avoid chasing fads and prefer discipline, patience and consistency. Compounding over time is our most valuable ally.

Over the long term this approach is designed to succeed. We walk the talk by investing our own money into our own “preferred portfolios” across several risk profiles. We carefully benchmark our results and over the full cycle, we expect these portfolios to out-perform category averages, thanks to a disciplined process that taps directly into world class institutions.

The performance and track record of our “preferred portfolios” is available upon request.
Within our preferred portfolios we can break down the various management styles into three distinct allocations, each with its own unique advantage:

  1. Allocation 1: ultra-low-cost public market exposure, for diversified and cost-efficient outcomes, also known as ‘passive investment’ or ‘indexing’. Here we’re seeking to win through participating in long term market growth at the lowest possible cost.
  2. Allocation 2: smart active management by tilting portfolio investments towards where future value lies and away from over- valued investments. Here we’re tapping into leading stock-pickers and investment gurus around the world, each with a record of beating their peers through better returns or lower risk.
  3. Allocation 3: private markets – using specialist managers to access premium investments not available to the public. Here we’re tapping into scarcity value, for example the relationships and network effects enjoyed by certain private equity and private debt managers.

Whilst we back our preferred portfolios with our own money, we fully expect to tailor client portfolios to their preferences and situations. For example, we can help our clients build portfolios that reflect not just their financial objectives, but to actively avoid certain investments or invest directly into social and environmental change.

We are licenced to trade shares, funds, bonds and deposits for clients. We are agnostic between self-managed super, retail super, industry super, direct shares, property and funds. We are truly independent and have no hidden ties or commission arrangements with product manufacturers. We are practical people who will simply recommend what’s in our clients’ best interests, within the context of their Grand Plans. Our recommendations are backed by credible research and our main research partners are Morningstar, Macquarie Group and Vanguard.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should seek personal advice from Grand Plan Wealth to consider if the strategies and products are right for you. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Get started on your Grand Plan

Everyone needs to sort out their wealth.  So is yours sorted?

If not, take heart.  It may not be that hard to get your Grand Plan together.  And quickly too.  But most people need help because, like the puzzle above, all the pieces need to fit together.

Don’t neglect your Grand Plan, or at some point you or your loved ones could be facing a self-inflicted financial crisis.

Here’s a few tips on bringing your pieces into alignment.

  1. Living well is about budgeting for a full life to a sustainable standard of living from the here and now into old age. It’s about knowing that you’ve struck a comfortable balance between never running out of money and not short-changing yourself or your loved ones.
  2. Your legacy is about considering those left behind when you go. It’s not so much the size of your estate; its also about empowering your loved ones to succeed without you.   Careful estate planning is much more than having a will, although far too many Australians haven’t even managed that step. So if you want your legacy to be respected (and we speak from experience here), remember this: disarray doesn’t pay!
  3. Personal Insurance (life, disability, income protection cover etc) is about surviving financially when really bad things happen.  Insurance needs change over time.  Typically, our insurance needs peak when we have young families and reduce as we approach retirement.  Premiums have never been as expensive as now, so make sure you understand and really need what you’re paying for.
  4. Investment is about how you fund your grand plan. You need to be confident that you’ll earn highly competitive returns over the long term.  And you need to sleep well at night as the markets cycle through boom and bust.
  5. Tax planning and structuring – Super, pensions, annuities, trusts, investment companies – what is the best set up for you?  The attraction of certain structures will change over time and thankfully there are some generous tax concessions that become available as we age. So we should use them!

That may sound like a lot, but at Grand Plan Wealth we take on the heavy lifting.  Your Grand Plan will be completed and implemented with you.  It will be saved securely on our systems.  We’re happy to take the lead on updates when required, or you can have on line access.  This gives you the ability to update things and run “what if” scenarios.

Contact us now to get started.  Or, if you’re already pretty confident with your personal finance numbers, you can use our free software to make a start in your own time.

There’s plenty of upside.  With your Grand Plan in place, you’ll have the confidence to live out your very best life, with no regrets.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should seek personal advice from Grand Plan Wealth to consider if the strategies and products are right for you. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor.  Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

UK State Pension Rescue – capture the benefit.

We continue to get fantastic results for our UK State Pension Rescue clients, helping them drastically improve their pension expectations for a modest cost.

Our specialist service can assist most Australian residents improve their UK pension if they lived and worked in the UK for 4 years or more.

One recent client we helped is Mark, who was able to increase his Pension expectation from nothing (not enough years had been contributed to qualify for anything) to an expected 90% of a full UK State Pension, from age 67, for life. The cost of the whole exercise will likely be recouped after two years of commencing his pension (by age 69).

For most, a key element of the process is to present the HMRC with an accurate personal history that maximises the chance that HMRC will offer contribution back-payments at a concessional rate.

For eligible clients, these back-payments can then be made for each of the last six years, as well as ongoing annual contributions. This has been a boon for those looking to increase their pension expectation or qualify for the first time.

So please reach out now if you, or someone you know needs a UK State Pension Rescue.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should seek personal advice from Grand Plan Wealth to consider if the strategies and products are right for you. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Investment outlook Q1 2026

 

 

As we approach the end of January, investment markets are close to all-time highs.  Global economic momentum and profit growth is good.  Investment markets remain buoyed by AI related investment activity as well as ongoing fiscal deficits and relatively low interest rates.  Politicians and Central Bankers are unwilling to rein in highly stimulatory policy settings, despite record levels of debt and inflation higher than target levels in many countries.

Thus far investment markets have generally shrugged off the recent erratic US policy announcements, taking the view that they are just Trump’s negotiation tactics and that, in essence, the good times will continue.

Nevertheless, our view is that there is an underlying cycle of boom and bust and we appear to be late in the cycle.  The current extremes in valuation for some financial assets may result in public share markets struggling to provide good medium to long term returns from here on in.  Investment markets seem to be banking on AI productivity improvements being quite profound and there being no large political, economic or other external shocks that could cause an ongoing loss in confidence in trade and financial systems.

Still, signs of nervousness are evident. Precious metals are reaching new highs as global investors reassess holding their reserves in US assets.

In Australia, inflation remains above the RBA’s preferred level.  Australian company profit growth is modest outside the resources sector, which is benefiting from the stronger metals prices.

In response, our portfolio positioning has become a little more cautious. We are shifting away from large US companies, many of which are trading at extreme valuations, and focusing on smaller, value-oriented companies globally.

If you would like more detailed insights, please reach out to us.

 

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should seek personal advice from Grand Plan Wealth to consider if the strategies and products are right for you. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Investment outlook Q3 2025

 

 

As we approach the end of June, investment markets are hovering near all-time highs. This is despite not knowing President Donald Trump’s next move on tariffs, with the 90-day reprieve from his April announcements soon to expire. His decision making process, which seems to be just as surprising to White House staff, means we’re always just one Truth Social post away from the next bout of volatility.

Several factors are contributing to the current market strength:

  1. Trump’s Inaction on Tariffs: Despite the initial announcements causing a 20% fall in the US share market, Trump has yet to follow through in the key markets that matter, like Europe and China.
  2. Global Stimulus Measures: New stimulus initiatives in Europe and China are helping the global economy adjust to Trump’s isolationist stance.
  3. Global Profit Growth: Expectations of stronger global profits, boosted by the anticipation of AI-driven productivity improvements.
  4. Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation is slowly falling to target levels in most major economies, allowing for a gradual decrease in interest rates.
  5. US Fiscal Deficits: The increased likelihood of more domestic stimulation through larger US fiscal deficits as Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” progresses through the Senate.
  6. Federal Reserve Leadership: Anticipation that Trump will soon select an extreme monetary ‘dove’ from his inner circle to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026. Trump’s pick would likely have a clear agenda to lower interest rates above all else.

While these factors have bolstered markets, the sustainability of the last two is questionable. But the timing of any potential reckoning is unknown—it could be years away.  Still, signs of nervousness are evident. Gold is reaching new highs and the US dollar and long term US bond markets are struggling.

In response our portfolio positioning has become more cautious. We are shifting away from large US companies, many of which are trading at extreme valuations, and focusing on smaller, value-oriented companies globally, as well as infrastructure and property investments.

If you would like more detailed insights, please reach out to us.

 

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should seek personal advice from Grand Plan Wealth to consider if the strategies and products are right for you. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Investment outlook Q1 2025

 

 

It’s that time of year when the so-called experts line up with their predictions of investment returns for the year ahead.  But this year it’s more hot air than ever.  The US sets the tempo and hardly anyone expected its economy and share market in 2024 to do as well as it did.  And right now, no one knows if President Trump will follow through with his audacious agenda of tariffs, tax cuts, deportations and isolationism.  They say politics don’t influence financial markets much but we all agree it’s a very uncertain time.

 

What we do know is that the US continues to be the profit growth engine of the world, its consumers are spending and its share market is priced for perfection. Dig deeper and we see that the profit and share market growth has been quite narrow, with much of it coming from the ‘Magnificent Seven’: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google) Tesla, Nvidia and Meta (Facebook).  Outside the technology sector, growth is hard to come by, as is productivity and GDP per capita around the world.  This is certainly the case in Australia where profits have been flat or declining for a couple of years.

 

So where to invest?  With short and long term interest rates quite elevated and inflation still moderating, fixed income and bonds are looking quite attractive.  This environment’s pretty good for shares too, but starting valuations are important.  Over the next 10 years Vanguard are expecting only very modest returns from the broad US share market.  As a result, their latest forecasts are showing quite similar return expectations from the traditional mixes of “Conservative”, “Balanced” and “Growth”.  They expect “Growth” to outperform over the next 10 years, but not by much.  This prompts an important conversation about how much extra reward we can expect from the portfolio risks we take.  These views are reflected in our preferred portfolios, which straddle all the main asset classes and are designed for maximum diversification benefit.

 

Reach out to us if you’d like more detail.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should seek personal advice from Grand Plan Wealth to consider if the strategies and products are right for you. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Investment outlook Q3 2024

 

Returns have remained strong for most fully invested investors, with shares at all-time highs and bonds stable.  Investment markets are still much more interested in inflation and jobs numbers than politics, even though we’ve been witnessing seismic political shifts almost daily in the US, France and the UK.  We may see some volatility as we get closer to the US election.

The central narrative is that inflation is slowly returning to target levels in most countries, interest rates will be cut and recessions will mostly be avoided.  Importantly, financial markets are now convinced that US interest rates (currently 5-5.25%) will start to be managed down during quarter 3.  This would normally mean a tailwind to investment returns.  The UK and Europe are already reducing rates.  Australia is somewhat out of step though, at 4.35% its rate is already 1% lower than the US and conditions don’t look right for a rate cut yet.  In fact, a temporary interest rate hike in Australia should not be ruled out if the June quarter inflation number looks strong.  That statistic comes out on 31 July.

Our main investment focus at Grand Plan Wealth is the compounding of wealth for long term investors. Short term returns may be fascinating (at least to the finance types) but they are essentially a lottery. We can be much more confident in long term forecasts, because long term returns are mainly derived from the more predictable earnings that flow out of diversified investment portfolios – profits, dividends, interest payments, rents etc. On this note, Vanguard updated their long term forecasts in quarter 2. The numbers have softened a little, but with all the usual caveats they are still tipping worthwhile returns across traditional market portfolios over 10 and 30 years, even after the impact of inflation. And because interest rates are currently elevated, even conservative ‘bond heavy’ portfolios are expected to do relatively well.

Reach out to us if you’d like more detail.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.

Investment Outlook for 2024

Since the lows of October last year, Australian and most international share markets have rallied strongly. More than anything this has been due to increasing confidence that inflation in Australia and around the world is trending down towards Central bank targets of 2-3% without the need for further interest rate rises.

Indeed, the financial markets of Australia and the US are anticipating modest interest rate cuts later in 2024, although Central Banks keep stressing that they won’t hesitate to increase rates if inflation doesn’t continue to fall.

Even if interest rate cuts do come, it does seem highly unlikely that rates will revisit the lows of the COVID era.

The sense of optimism has continued into the new year, although economic growth is generally weak and there are numerous geopolitical risks such as the Palestinian/Israeli war, the Ukraine war and the upcoming US election.

Our research partners are unanimous in highlighting that we are now in a period of “sound money”, in that we finally have positive real interest rates (many bond and deposit interest rates are higher than current inflation). As such, bonds can provide attractive yields and play a genuinely defensive role in the event of an unexpected downturn.

Although company profit growth overall looks soft, Australian shares are generally seen as fairly valued, along with most overseas markets. The US share market looks stretched, partly through heady expectations from technology stocks, including AI.

Most other asset classes are seen as being in the fair value range, with emerging markets and smaller companies showing signs of being under-valued.

For long term investors, our current positioning is to be well diversified and close to full investment allocations, with modest tilts towards bonds, emerging markets and smaller companies.

 

General Advice Warning: Any advice included in this article and associated links is general in nature and would not consider your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. If a product we recommend has a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), you should read it before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other than cash deposits falling under the Australian Government’s Financial Claims Scheme, any investment we recommend has the potential to deliver a loss to an investor. Nevertheless, we are of the view that for Australian investors it is reasonable to expect a skilfully managed diversified portfolio to deliver positive returns over the long term, over and above cash returns and the impact of inflation.